Past (observed) climate and future climate scenario projections data that were produced as part of the UK climate projections 2009 (UKCP09) service. The data produced by the UK Met Office providing information on plausible changes in 21st century climate for the UK helping to inform on adaptation to a changing climate. A UKCP09 website provided climate information for the UK and its regions. Through the website user interface climate statistics over the UK could be calculated dynamically. The data that informs these calculations is made available here. UKCP09 provides future climate projections for land and marine regions as well as observed (past) climate data for the UK. Additionally a copy of the projections csv archive is provided. These are zip files of batch processed UKCP09 data outputs. The projections improve upon the previous climate projections (UKCIP 2002) by incorporating more recent scientific understanding, providing data at a higher spatial resolution and providing an approach to dealing with uncertainties through probabilistic projections.

UK Climate Projections 2009 (UKCP09) sea level rise data provides projections of changes in absolute sea level rise in waters surrounding the UK and changes in relative sea level for coastal areas, where the influence of land movements is considered (and data included here) over the period 1999-2099. Data are provided for three emissions scenarios: Low (IPCC SRES: B1), Medium (IPCC SRES: A1B), and High (IPCC SRES: A1FI). These projections also include a high risk, low probability scenario (known as the H++ scenario). The H++ scenario has been included to reflect the fact that there considerable uncertainties about the upper limit of absolute sea-level rise. This scenario relies, in part, on expert judgement and is designed to encourage users to think about thresholds of existing systems and the limits to adaptation. Note: Unlike some other components of UKCP09, the sea level projections are not probabilistic. They provide a frequency distribution of projections based on results from eleven models contributed to the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report. The model projections of sea level rise have not been weighted based on comparison with historical sea level observations, and are therefore treated as equally plausible. More information about the sea level rise methodology (including assumptions and caveats) is given in Chapter 3 of the Marine & coastal projections report.

The UK Climate Projections 2009 (UKCP09) projections of temperature from low, medium and high emissions scenarios' equivalent global temperature changes. They are probabilistic climate predictions based on families of runs of the Met Office Hadley Centre climate models HadCM3, HadRM3 and HadSM3, plus climate models from other climate centres contributing to IPCC AR4 and CMIP3. The equivalent changes in global temperatures are taken from three emissions scenarios: low (IPCC SRES: B1), medium (IPCC SRES: A1B), and high (IPCC SRES: A1FI). Each scenario provides estimates over seven 30 year period averages: 2010-2039, 2030s = 2020-2049, 2040s = 2030-2059, 2050s = 2040-2069, 2060s = 2050-2079, 2070s = 2060-2089, 2080s = 2070-2099. Temperature changes are given relative to 1961-1990.

The UKCP09 marine & coastal storm surge data provides projections of surge height for the linear trend, the 5th and 95th percentiles throughout the 21st Century for 2, 10, 20 and 50 year return period events (including statistical significance) over a 12km coastal grid. Data are available for a medium emissions scenario (IPCC SRES: A1B), to reflect some aspects of the uncertainty in modelling global and regional climate change eleven different variants of the Met Office Hadley Centre climate model HadCM3 were used to drive eleven corresponding variants of the HadRM3 regional model, which in turn drove the National Oceanography Centre storm surge model (POLCS3). Note: The projections do not cover all plausible future outcomes and unlike some other components of UKCP09, the storm surge height projections are not probabilistic, although a range is provided based on the assumption that the 11 simulations are equally likely. More information about the storm surge methodology (including assumptions and caveats) are given in Chapter 4 of the UKCP09 Marine & coastal projections report and the technical note on storm projections.

The UK Climate Projections (UKCP09) probabilistic climate projections of climate change over land. These data consist of various meteorological parameters such as temperature, precipitation, surface pressure, humidity. The projections of future absolute climate that assign a probability level to different climate possibilities, the absolute values, percentage change relative to the observed climate (1961-1990) and percentiles of the parameter projections are provided over 30 year time periods over the projection period 2010-2099. The averaging periods provided are: 2010-2039, 2020-2049, 2030-2059, 2040-2069, 2050-2079, 2060-2089, 2070-2099. Data are provided over three aggregated areas, (1) a 25km grid over the UK, (2) administrative regions that are areas of the UK based on administrative boundaries and (3) river basins that are based on a division of the UK land area based on the Water Framework Directive River Basin Districts. In 2009 the first version of the UK probabilistic projections of climate change over land were provided. In 2013 an update was made to some of the files (version 2). Both versions of this data are made available here with the version 2 data being the most recent. These projections provides an absolute value for the future climate (as opposed to giving values that are relative to a baseline period). A probabilistic climate projection is a measure of strength of evidence in different future climate change outcomes. This measure is dependent on the method used, is based on the current available evidence and encapsulates some, but not all, of the uncertainty associated with projecting future climate. The climate projections report contains further details.

The UK Climate Projections 2009 (UKCP09) probabilistic marine projections data are projections of a future climate with an associated probability. Monthly and annual data are provided for mean sea level pressure, temperature, precipitation and total cloud cover in 30 year averages (2010-2039, 2020-2049, 2030-2059, 2040-2069, 2050-2079, 2060-2089, 2070-2099). These projections provide an absolute value for the future climate (as opposed to giving values that are relative to a baseline period). A probabilistic climate projection is a measure of the strength of evidence in different future climate change outcomes. This measure is dependent on the method used, is based on the currently available evidence and encapsulates some, but not all, of the uncertainty associated with projecting future climate. The marine and coastal projections report contains further details (see linked documentation).

The UK climate projections (UKCP09) comma separated value (CSV) archive consists of probabilistic data for various climate parameters. Two products are available: firstly, zip files of batch processed UKCP09 data outputs that were provided as an alternative to having to generate multiple requests on the UKCP09 website; and, secondly, additional products that were not available under from the UKCP09 website. These are provided as raw data files. List of products: 1. UK Probabilistic Projections of Climate Change over Land: Grouped by - variable and location and - variable and temporal average. 2. UK Probabilistic Projections of Climate Change over Marine Regions: Grouped by - emissions scenario, - location, - temporal average, - time period, - variable, - variable and location and - variable and temporal average. 3. Projections of Trend in Storm Surge for UK Waters: all data is grouped into one file. 4. Projections of Sea Level Rise for UK Waters: Grouped by - emissions scenario, - location and - emissions scenario and location. 5. Global average temperature change values for each time period and emissions scenario: - all cumulative distribution function (CDF) data in a single file - all sampled data in a single file. 6. UK Probabilistic Projections of Climate Change over Land conditioned by a given global average temperature change: Grouped by - probability level and - variable and probability level 7. Spatially Coherent Projections of UK Climate Change over Land: grouped by variable, temporal average and scenario The file naming convention is provided in the documentation.

The UK climate projections 2009 (UKCP09) marine and coastal multi-level ocean projections provide detailed information on the potential future implications of climate change on the marine environment in UK waters. Marine parameters are provided for projections of changes in water temperature, salinity, currents and stability of the water column over a 12km marine grid, for the 30 year time period 2070-2099 (and the baseline period 1961-1990) for the medium emissions scenario (IPCC SRES: A1B). Note: The multi-level ocean projections are based on a single model simulation. In contrast to some other components of UKCP09 these are not probabilistic projections, meaning they do not quantify the range of future changes associated with modelling uncertainties or natural climate variability. More information about the variables and methodology (including assumptions and caveats) are given in Chapter 6 of the Marine & coastal projections report (see linked documentation).

Data for Figure 10.19 from Chapter 10 of the Working Group I (WGI) Contribution to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Sixth Assessment Report (AR6). Figure 10.19 shows changes in the Indian summer monsoon in the historical and future periods. --------------------------------------------------- How to cite this dataset --------------------------------------------------- When citing this dataset, please include both the data citation below (under 'Citable as') and the following citation for the report component from which the figure originates: Doblas-Reyes, F.J., A.A. Sörensson, M. Almazroui, A. Dosio, W.J. Gutowski, R. Haarsma, R. Hamdi, B. Hewitson, W.-T. Kwon, B.L. Lamptey, D. Maraun, T.S. Stephenson, I. Takayabu, L. Terray, A. Turner, and Z. Zuo, 2021: Linking Global to Regional Climate Change. In Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change[Masson-Delmotte, V., P. Zhai, A. Pirani, S.L. Connors, C. Péan, S. Berger, N. Caud, Y. Chen, L. Goldfarb, M.I. Gomis, M. Huang, K. Leitzell, E. Lonnoy, J.B.R. Matthews, T.K. Maycock, T. Waterfield, O. Yelekçi, R. Yu, and B. Zhou (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, pp. 1363–1512, doi:10.1017/9781009157896.012. --------------------------------------------------- Figure subpanels --------------------------------------------------- The figure has 6 subpanels. Data for all subpanels is provided. --------------------------------------------------- List of data provided --------------------------------------------------- The dataset contains: APHRODITE station density for June-September (JJAS) 1956 Precipitation June-September (JJAS): - Model mean bias 1985-2010 - Observed and modelled trends: CRU TS 1950-2000, CMIP6 hist-GHG & hist-aer 1950-2000, and CMIP6 SSP5-8.5 2015-2100 trends - Observed and model relative anomalies over 1950-2100 with respect to 1995-2014 averages over central India (lon: 76°E-87°E, lat: 20°N-28°N) - Modelled change until 2081‒2100 with respect to 1995-2014 averages over central India (lon: 76°E-87°E, lat: 20°N-28°N) - Trends in relative precipitation anomalies (baseline 1995-2014) over past (1950-2000) and future (2015-2100) period over central India (lon: 76°E-87°E, lat: 20°N-28°N). - Trend difference between the 3 MPI-ESM runs with the lowest and the 3 MPI-ESM runs with the highest trend --------------------------------------------------- Data provided in relation to figure --------------------------------------------------- Panel (a): APHRODITE station density for JJAS 1956: - Data file: Fig_10_19_panel-a_mapplot_APHRODITE_stationdensity_single_mean.nc Panel (b): CMIP6 mean precipitation bias June-September mean 1985-2010 mean with respect to CRU TS: - Data file: Fig_10_19_panel-b_mapplot_pr_cmip6_bias_pr_cmip6_maps_past_bias_MultiModelMean_bias.nc Panel (c): OLS linear precipitation for June-September mean trend of CRU TS 1950-2000 (top left), CMIP6 hist-GHG (bottom left) & hist-aer (bottom right) 1950-2000, and CMIP6 SSP5-8.5 2015-2100 (top right): - Data files: Fig_10_19_panel-c_mapplot_pr_cmip6_mean_trend_future_pr_cmip6_maps_trend_future_MultiModelMean_trend.nc, Fig_10_19_panel-c_mapplot_pr_histaer_mean_trend_past_pr_aer_maps_trend_past_MultiModelMean_trend.nc, Fig_10_19_panel-c_mapplot_pr_histghg_mean_trend_past_pr_ghg_maps_trend_past_MultiModelMean_trend.nc, Fig_10_19_panel-c_mapplot_pr_obs_mean_trend_past_CRU_single_trend.nc; Panel (d): Observed and model relative precipitation June-September mean anomalies over 1950-2100 in respect to 1995-2014 averages over central India (lon: 76°E-87°E, lat: 20°N-28°N) (CRU TS (brown), GPCC (dark blue), REGEN (green), APHRO-MA (light brown), IITM all-India rainfall (light blue), CMIP6 hist all-forcings sample corresponding to DAMIP experiments (pink), CMIP6 hist-aer (grey), hist-GHG (light blue) CMIP6 historical/SSP5-8.5 (dark red) and CMIP5 historical/RCP8.5 (dark blue) and Modelled change until 2081‒2100 in respect to 1995-2014 averages over central India (CMIP6 SSP5-8.5 (dark red) and CMIP5 historical/RCP8.5 (dark blue)): - Data files: Fig_10_19_panel-d_timeseries.csv, Fig_10_19_panel-d_boxplot.csv Panel (e): OLS linear trends in relative precipitation June-September mean anomalies (baseline 1995-2014) over past (1950-2000) and future (2015-2100) period over central India (lon: 76°E-87°E, lat: 20°N-28°N) of observations (GPCC, CRU TS, REGEN and APRHO-MA: black crosses) and models (individual members of CMIP5 historical-RCP8.5 (blue), CMIP6 historical-SSP5-8.5 (dark red), CMIP6 hist all-forcings sample corresponding to DAMIP experiments (pink circles), CMIP6 hist-GHG (blue triangles), CMIP6 hist-aer (grey triangles)), and box-and-whisker plots for the SMILEs: MIROC6, CSIRO-Mk3-6-0, MPI-ESM, d4PDF (grey shading): - Data file: Fig_10_19_panel-e_trends.csv Panel (f): June-September mean 2016-2045 OLS linear trend difference in precipitation between the 3 MPI-ESM runs with the lowest and the 3 MPI-ESM runs with the highest trend: - Data file: Fig_10_19_panel-f_mapplot_pr_mpige_mean_trend_future_spread_single_trend-difference-min3-max3.nc Acronyms: CMIP - Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, APHRODITE - ASIAN PRECIPITATION - HIGHLY-RESOLVED OBSERVATIONAL DATA INTEGRATION TOWARDS EVALUATION OF WATER RESOURCES, CRU TS- Climatic Research Unit Time Series, GHG - Greenhouse gas, IITM - Indian Institute of Technology Madras, RCP - Representative Concentration Pathway, DAIMP - Detection and Attribution Model Intercomparison Project, SSP - Shared Socioeconomic Pathways, GPCC - GLOBAL PRECIPITATION CLIMATOLOGY CENTRE, REGEN - Rainfall Estimates on a Gridded Network, S MILEs -single model initial-condition large ensembles, d4PDF - Database for Policy Decision-Making for Future Climate Change, MIROC - Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate, MPI - Max-Planck-Institut für Meteorologie, ESM - Earth System Model, Cordex – Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment, OLS - ordinary least squares regression. --------------------------------------------------- Notes on reproducing the figure from the provided data --------------------------------------------------- The code for ESMValTool is provided. --------------------------------------------------- Sources of additional information --------------------------------------------------- The following weblinks are provided in the Related Documents section of this catalogue record: - Link to the figure on the IPCC AR6 website - Link to the report component containing the figure (Chapter 10) - Link to the Supplementary Material for Chapter 10, which contains details on the input data used in Table 10.SM.11 - Link to the code for the figure, archived on Zenodo.