Past (observed) climate and future climate scenario projections data that were produced as part of the UK climate projections 2009 (UKCP09) service. The data produced by the UK Met Office providing information on plausible changes in 21st century climate for the UK helping to inform on adaptation to a changing climate. A UKCP09 website provided climate information for the UK and its regions. Through the website user interface climate statistics over the UK could be calculated dynamically. The data that informs these calculations is made available here. UKCP09 provides future climate projections for land and marine regions as well as observed (past) climate data for the UK. Additionally a copy of the projections csv archive is provided. These are zip files of batch processed UKCP09 data outputs. The projections improve upon the previous climate projections (UKCIP 2002) by incorporating more recent scientific understanding, providing data at a higher spatial resolution and providing an approach to dealing with uncertainties through probabilistic projections.

UK Climate Projections 2009 (UKCP09) sea level rise data provides projections of changes in absolute sea level rise in waters surrounding the UK and changes in relative sea level for coastal areas, where the influence of land movements is considered (and data included here) over the period 1999-2099. Data are provided for three emissions scenarios: Low (IPCC SRES: B1), Medium (IPCC SRES: A1B), and High (IPCC SRES: A1FI). These projections also include a high risk, low probability scenario (known as the H++ scenario). The H++ scenario has been included to reflect the fact that there considerable uncertainties about the upper limit of absolute sea-level rise. This scenario relies, in part, on expert judgement and is designed to encourage users to think about thresholds of existing systems and the limits to adaptation. Note: Unlike some other components of UKCP09, the sea level projections are not probabilistic. They provide a frequency distribution of projections based on results from eleven models contributed to the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report. The model projections of sea level rise have not been weighted based on comparison with historical sea level observations, and are therefore treated as equally plausible. More information about the sea level rise methodology (including assumptions and caveats) is given in Chapter 3 of the Marine & coastal projections report.

This dataset contains a set of observed climate indices on a 5km resolution grid. The data are derived from daily temperature and precipitation grids (see related dataset) to provide annual indicies: 9 temperature based indices (for example summer heatwave duration); and 12 precipitation indices (for example maximum 1 day precipitation amount). The data are provide in CF-1.5 compliant NetCDF format. The data are additionally provided in ESRI-ascii format, suitable for ingestion in GIS applications, and a simple timeseries format for users requiring a limited number of points.

This dataset contains a set of observed monthly climate variables on a 5km resolution grid. The observations are derived from 16 daily climate variables that have been averaged (e.g. daily maximum temperature) or summed (e.g. monthly total precipitation) over calendar months. The input station data originate from the Met Office Integrated Data Archive System (A version of MIDAS is also available through CEDA, although incremental developments to the database such as quality control and data recovery activities may result in some differences compared to the database at the time of production of the UKCP09 data). The gridding process accounts for effects such as latitude, longitude, altitude, coastal influence, and the effect of urban land through the use of normalisation with respect to monthly 1961 – 1990 climate normals, and in the case of some variables a regression model. For more details about the construction see Perry and Hollis (2005). The data are provide in CF-1.5 compliant NetCDF format. The data are additionally provided in ESRI-ascii format, suitable for ingestion in GIS applications, and a simple timeseries format for users requiring a limited number of points.

The UK Climate Projections 2009 (UKCP09) projections of temperature from low, medium and high emissions scenarios' equivalent global temperature changes. They are probabilistic climate predictions based on families of runs of the Met Office Hadley Centre climate models HadCM3, HadRM3 and HadSM3, plus climate models from other climate centres contributing to IPCC AR4 and CMIP3. The equivalent changes in global temperatures are taken from three emissions scenarios: low (IPCC SRES: B1), medium (IPCC SRES: A1B), and high (IPCC SRES: A1FI). Each scenario provides estimates over seven 30 year period averages: 2010-2039, 2030s = 2020-2049, 2040s = 2030-2059, 2050s = 2040-2069, 2060s = 2050-2079, 2070s = 2060-2089, 2080s = 2070-2099. Temperature changes are given relative to 1961-1990.

The UKCP09 marine & coastal storm surge data provides projections of surge height for the linear trend, the 5th and 95th percentiles throughout the 21st Century for 2, 10, 20 and 50 year return period events (including statistical significance) over a 12km coastal grid. Data are available for a medium emissions scenario (IPCC SRES: A1B), to reflect some aspects of the uncertainty in modelling global and regional climate change eleven different variants of the Met Office Hadley Centre climate model HadCM3 were used to drive eleven corresponding variants of the HadRM3 regional model, which in turn drove the National Oceanography Centre storm surge model (POLCS3). Note: The projections do not cover all plausible future outcomes and unlike some other components of UKCP09, the storm surge height projections are not probabilistic, although a range is provided based on the assumption that the 11 simulations are equally likely. More information about the storm surge methodology (including assumptions and caveats) are given in Chapter 4 of the UKCP09 Marine & coastal projections report and the technical note on storm projections.

This dataset contains a set of reference long term averages for observed climate variables on an approximately 25km resolution grid. This matches the resolution of the HadRM3 regional climate model and the UKCP09 climate projections. These data represent the baseline reference climate averages for the period 1961 – 1990. The data were derived from the Met Office gridded land surface climate observations – long term averages at 5km resolution (see related dataset). Each 25 x 25km grid box value is an average of the 5 x 5 km grid cell values that fall within it. Averages have been calculated for each month, season and the year as a whole (17 data sets). For the days of frost and days of rain variables the seasonal and annual averages are the total of the individual monthly averages. For the remaining variables the seasonal and annual averages are the mean of the monthly averages (allowing for differences in month length). To facilitate combining the baseline data with the UKCP09 climate projections, the 25 km baseline averages for rainfall have been expressed in units of millimetres per day (rather than total millimetres, as for the 5 km data sets). The data are provide in CF-1.5 compliant NetCDF format. The data are additionally provided in ESRI-ascii format, suitable for ingestion in GIS applications, and a simple timeseries format for users requiring a limited number of points.

The UK Climate Projections (UKCP09) probabilistic climate projections of climate change over land. These data consist of various meteorological parameters such as temperature, precipitation, surface pressure, humidity. The projections of future absolute climate that assign a probability level to different climate possibilities, the absolute values, percentage change relative to the observed climate (1961-1990) and percentiles of the parameter projections are provided over 30 year time periods over the projection period 2010-2099. The averaging periods provided are: 2010-2039, 2020-2049, 2030-2059, 2040-2069, 2050-2079, 2060-2089, 2070-2099. Data are provided over three aggregated areas, (1) a 25km grid over the UK, (2) administrative regions that are areas of the UK based on administrative boundaries and (3) river basins that are based on a division of the UK land area based on the Water Framework Directive River Basin Districts. In 2009 the first version of the UK probabilistic projections of climate change over land were provided. In 2013 an update was made to some of the files (version 2). Both versions of this data are made available here with the version 2 data being the most recent. These projections provides an absolute value for the future climate (as opposed to giving values that are relative to a baseline period). A probabilistic climate projection is a measure of strength of evidence in different future climate change outcomes. This measure is dependent on the method used, is based on the current available evidence and encapsulates some, but not all, of the uncertainty associated with projecting future climate. The climate projections report contains further details.

This dataset contains a set of reference long term averages for observed climate variables that have been spatially averaged over a set of 14 administrative regions and 23 river basins across the British Isles (see links to maps and lists below). Where possible, reference climatologies for each of the periods 1961-1990, 1971-2000 and 1981-2010 are available for each variable. The availability of a variable for a given reference period was dependant on sufficient data for that variable within the reference period. Each regional value is an average of the 5km x 5km grid cell values that fall within it. The data were derived from the Met Office gridded land surface climate observations – long term averages at 5km resolution (See related dataset) and are provided as space delimited text files. The 14 administrative regions used within UKCP09 were: - East Midlands - East of England - East Scotland - London - North East England - North Scotland - North West England - Northern Ireland - South East England - South West England - Wales - West Midlands - West Scotland - Yorkshire & The Humber The 23 river basin regions used within UKCP09 were: - Anglian - Argyll - Clyde - Dee - Forth - Humber - Neagh Bann - North East Scotland - North Eastern Ireland - North Highland - North West England - North Western Ireland - Northumbria - Orkney and Shetland - Severn - Solway - South East England - South West England - Tay - Thames - Tweed - West Highland - Western Wales

This dataset contains a set of daily observations of temperature (daily maximum, daily minimum and daily mean temperature) and rainfall (24 hour accumulation) interpolated to a uniform 5km grid resolution covering the period 1960 to 2014. The input station data originate from the Met Office Integrated Data Archive System - MIDAS - a database at the Met Office of observation station data stretching back to the 18th century. (A version of MIDAS is also available through CEDA, although incremental developments to the database such as quality control and data recovery activities may result in some differences compared to the database at the time of production of the UKCP09 data - see linked datasets for access to these equivalent datasets held by CEDA). The input station data used provide observations relating to periods 0900 to 0900 UTC, so the gridded output stored against day "dd" are as follows: • Maximum temperature between 0900 on day dd and 0900 on day dd+1 (normally expect to occur during the afternoon of day dd) • Minimum temperature between 0900 on day dd-1 and 0900 on day dd (normally expect to occur just before dawn on day dd) • Mean temperature that is the average of the maximum and minimum temperature • Rainfall (or rainfall equivalent in cases of frozen precipitation) amount between 0900 day dd and 0900 day dd+1 The gridding process accounts for effects such as latitude, longitude, altitude, coastal influence, and the effect of urban land through the use of normalisation with respect to monthly 1961 – 1990 climate normals, and in the case of temperature, a regression model. The data are provide in CF-1.5 compliant NetCDF format. The data are additionally provided in ESRI-ascii format, suitable for ingestion in GIS applications, and a simple timeseries format for users requiring a limited number of points.