These climate projections for the North-West European Shelf Seas update the shelf seas component of UKCP09 Marine Report (Lowe et al, 2009) and were funded by the MINERVA project. This dataset contains ensemble statistics for model output based on the QUMP (Quantifying Uncertainties in Model Projections) ensemble of HadCM3 (Hadley Centre Coupled Model version 3) runs downscaled with the POLCOMS (Proudman Oceanographic Laboratory Coastal Ocean Modelling System) under SRES A1B (Special Report on Emissons Scenarios - A1B business-as-usual with medium emissions) conditions, from 1952-2098 for which 30-year means anomalies have been calculated from monthly mean data for each of the 12 months. A Perturbed Physics Ensemble (PPE) of HadCM3 has been downscaled with the shelf seas model POLCOMS. Each of the 11 ensemble members has been downscaled as transient simulations (from 1952-2098) under the SRES A1B emissions scenario. The PPE (QUMP) was designed to span the range of uncertainty associated with model parameter uncertainty in the atmosphere of the driving global climate model. POLCOMS was run at 12 km resolution, with 32 vertical levels using s-coordinates over the NW European Shelf Seas domain (-18.3 to 14 degrees East, 43 to 63.56 degrees North). Monthly statistics of the model results were recorded. Further details can be found in Tinker et al (2015).

These climate projections for the North-West European Shelf Seas update the shelf seas component of UKCP09 Marine Report (Lowe et al, 2009) and were funded by the MINERVA project. This dataset contains three ensemble exemplars for model output based on the QUMP (Quantifying Uncertainties in Model Projections) ensemble of HadCM3 (Hadley Centre Coupled Model version 3) runs downscaled with the POLCOMS (Proudman Oceanographic Laboratory Coastal Ocean Modelling System) under SRES A1B (Special Report on Emissons Scenarios - A1B business-as-usual with medium emissions) conditions, from 1952-2098 for which 30-year means anomalies have been calculated from monthly mean data for each of the 12 months. A Perturbed Physics Ensemble (PPE) of HadCM3 has been downscaled with the shelf seas model POLCOMS. Each of the 11 ensemble members has been downscaled as transient simulations (from 1952-2098) under the SRES A1B emissions scenario. The PPE (QUMP) was designed to span the range of uncertainty associated with model parameter uncertainty in the atmosphere of the driving global climate model. POLCOMS was run at 12 km resolution, with 32 vertical levels using s-coordinates over the NW European Shelf Seas domain (-18.3 to 14 degrees East, 43 to 63.56 degrees North). Monthly statistics of the model results were recorded. Further details can be found in Tinker et al (2015).

An update to the shelf seas component of UKCP09 Marine Report (Lowe et al. 2009) funded by the Minerva Project. A Perturbed Physics Ensemble (PPE) of HadCM3 has been downscaled with the shelf seas model POLCOMS. Each of the 11 ensemble members have been downscaled as transient simulations (from 1952-2098) under the SRES A1B emissions scenario. The PPE (QUMP: Quantifying Uncertainty in Model Projections) was designed to span the range of uncertainty associated with model parameter uncertainty in the atmosphere of the driving global climate model. POLCOMS was run at a 12km resolution, with 32 vertical levels using s-coordinates. Monthly statistics of the model results were recorded.