"Improving our ability to predict rapid changes in the El Nino Southern Oscillation climatic phenomenon" project, which was a Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) RAPID Climate Change Research Programme project (Round 1 - NER/T/S/2002/00443 - Duration 1 Jan 2004 - 30 Sep 2007) led by Prof Alexander Tudhope of the University of Edinburgh, with co-investigators at the Scottish Universities Environment Research Centre, Bigelow Laboratory for Ocean Sciences, and the University of Reading.

This dataset contains HadCM3 model outputs.

The objective was to use a combination of palaeoclimate reconstruction from annually-banded corals and the fully coupled HadCM3 atmosphere-ocean general circulation model to develop an understanding of the controls on variability in the strength and frequency of ENSO, and to improve our ability to predict the likelihood of future rapid changes in this important element of the climate system. To achieve this, three periods were targeted:

a) 0-2.5 ka: Representative of near-modern climate forcing; revealing the internal variability in the system.

b) 6-9 ka: a period of weak or absent ENSO, and different orbital forcing; a test of the model's ability to capture externally-forced change in ENSO.

c) 200-2100 AD: by using the palaeo periods to test and optimise model parameterisation, produce a new, improved, prediction of ENSO variability in a warming world.

Rapid Climate Change (RAPID) was a £20 million, six-year (2001-2007) programme for the Natural Environment Research Council. The programme aimed to improve the ability to quantify the probability and magnitude of future rapid change in climate, with a main (but not exclusive) focus on the role of the Atlantic Ocean's Thermohaline Circulation.